Foodservice Programs to Build Profits in C-Stores

Outline of the “Foodservice – Building Profits in C-Stores” speech I gave at the The Foodservice Distribution Conference & Expo earlier this week.

1. Food Service – Building Profits in C-Stores
2. State of the Industry-Fuel
   Fuel companies- least trusted out of 20 industries
   Volatility of fuel prices- inventory management- $3.50 in ground and selling it for $3.25
   Capital tied up inventory-$100,000 per site
   Fuel customers are not entering the store
   Credit-card fees- 10 cents a gallon, margins are averaging 11 cents. Net margins of 1 cent
3. Last line of defense
4. State of the Industry
   Cigarette margins are as low as 10% vs. 20% in the late 1990’s
   Proposed Federal excise tax of .61 a pack
   Wal-Mart ‘s “Market Side” small-scale stores
   Car wash sales (90% margin) have decreased as much as 50% in some markets
   Lottery sales are down due to inside traffic
   Increased labor , $8.50 in Washington in 2009
5. Industry Trends
   Oil companies are selling company owned convenience stores to retailers
   New construction has slowed down
   Large retailers (Circle K) will continue to buy out smaller (10-100 store) retailers
   Retailers are looking for other streams of income; prepaid phones, phone cards, etc.
   RETAILERS SEE FOOD SERVICE AS ONE OF THE FEW OPPORTUNITIES LEFT
6. Food service sales growth
   Food service sales grew 11 percent in 2007, largest category increase
   Foodservice eclipsed cigarettes in gross margin dollars for the first time in 2007
   Sandwiches increased sales 16 percent
   Roller grill sales rose 9.6 percent
   Coffee sales rose 8.2 percent last year
7. Food Service Trends
   Environmentally safe “Green”
   Obesity issue
   Healthy
   Meal Replacement – take home meals
   Organic
   Any program that will reduce labor
   Programs that have low investment
8. Branded food service Subway, Godfather’s
   Branded peaked in the 1998,down 35% in 2007
   Royalties of 8-12% and low volumes have driven this downward trend
   Retailers need to weigh brand equity and national advertising
   Taco Bell and others have exited the market
9. Leveraging a food service brand
10. Unbranded food service “Jim’s Sandwiches”
    Unbranded food service increased 19% in 2007
    Requires food service expertise
    Creativeness, systems and food safety
    7-11’s new menu pizza, wings, tenders, and burgers
    Retailers need a partnership with suppliers, such as; Turbo- chef, signage, and menu development
11. Unbranded concept
12. Unbranded Food Service
13. Semi- branded food service Hot Stuff –Piccadilly Circus
    15% increase in 2007
    Appearance of brand equity
    Systems and training in place
    Low labor
    Pre-made quality products
    Royalties are built into the supplier price
14. Semi-branded
15. Semi-branded
16. Roller grill
    Roller grill sales increased 9.6% in 2007
    Overcoming “Two dried up hot dogs” image
    New items, taquitos, scramblers, fiesta rolled dogs
    Retailers are looking for a complete package, menu board, item identifiers, promotional materials
    Food safety issues may threaten this program
17. Roller grill of the past
18. Roller grill of the future
19. Roller grill of the future
20. Pre Packaged Program sandwiches, burritos
    C-stores have a stigma of gas station food
    Over come the “Wedge” sandwich image
    Small investment and low risk
    Confidence- Kraft, Pierre, Oscar Meyer
    No extra labor
    Open air cooler, signage, merchandising
21. Pre-packaged of the past
22. Pre-packaged of the future
23. Open air merchandising
24. Replacing the “wedge”
25. Product confidence
26. Breakfast
    Breakfast hours sales grew 30.7 %
    Customer counts are heavy in the mornings
    Breakfast is the biggest growing segment
    Retailers want products that won’t increase labor costs
    Need for microwave products
    Portable items are needed
    Attractive display cases at the register
27. Donut program
28. Executable- counter top
29. Coffee
    Starbucks look
    Quality that can compete with Starbucks
    6 blends of coffee
    Cappuccino machine with 6 flavors
    6 flavored packet choices
    BIG SUPPLIER PROBLEM- service from third parties. 8hrs to 2 days
    Direct suppliers, service is 4 to 8 hours
30. Coffee of the future
31. Fast food war
    Discounting, McDonald’s $1 menus, Taco Bell less than $1 menu, and Subway $5 subs
    QSR aggressive focus on growing breakfast
    McDonald’s success with premium coffee
    Espresso on McDonald’s menu in 2008
    Portable growth, breakfast and snack wraps
    McDonald’s $1 soft drinks to steal C-store sales
32. Supplier partners of the past
33. Supplier Partners of the future
34. Supplier Partners of the future
35. Supplier opportunities
    Unbranded partnerships
    Comprehensive roller grill program
    Prepackaged sandwich-burrito
    Executable breakfast products
    Upscale coffee with service
    Signage and merchandising

DUE DILLIGENCE – DOING YOUR HOMEWORK

Outline of the “Due Dilligence – Doing Your Homework” speech I gave at the FOOD SERVICE AT RETAIL EXPO 2008.

1. DUE DILLIGENCE
   DOING YOUR HOME WORK
2. HOMEWORK
   Financial analysis
   Physical issues
   Day part customer count
   Choosing the correct format
   Core competency for food service
   Upper management commitment
3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
   PROJECTING DAILY SALES
   Inside customer counts 478
   Capture Rate 20%
   Expected F.S customers 96
   Average transaction $7
   Projected daily sales $669
   Monthly sales $20,076
4. PROJECTING FOOD COST
   Food costs=COGS / Sales
   Projecting food costs are complicated
   An item w/ $2 cost w/ $7 retail = 28%
   An item w/ $2 cost w/ $6 retail = 33%
   Sales mix skews food cost
   TB #1- 34% bean burrito mix =22%fc
   TB #2- 24% bean burrito mix=24%fc
5. LABOR
   Don’t listen to general labor cost %
   Write a manning table w local labor rates.
   Washington state min wage is 8.25
   Labor in Washington vs. Mississippi, how can you discuss labor % ?
   Include incremental supervisor labor
   Include taxes, bonus, and benefits
6. EXPENSES
   INCLUDE ALL EXPENSES
   Rent 
   Linen/Laundry 
   Telephone 
   Credit Card Service Charges 
   Other Taxes/ B&0 
   QSR Royalties- 
   Depreciation 
7. Required rate of return (Hurdle Rate)
   INVESTMENT -$181,148
   Cash flows 
   YEAR 1-$29,106
   YEAR 2-$25,406
   YEAR 3- $22,176
   YEAR 4-$19,357
   YEAR 5- $16,897
   END OF YEAR 5 YEARS- $112,942
   $68,206 Left on the investment at the end of 5 yrs
8. ANALYZING CUSTOMER COUNTS
   Customer counts per day part
   This information will dictate the format
   Heavy lunch-deli
   Heavy dinner- hamburger, chicken
   Heavy breakfast- donut, breakfast sand
9. PHYSICAL REVIEW
   Drive thru-critical hamburger formats
   Parking- limited can be offset by high carry out, Subway for example
   Store layout to share labor, donut formats need to be by the registers for impulse
   Signage restrictions
10. THE HUMAN FACTOR
    Is the owner committed to food service?
    Does the owner understand that it may take time to show a profit?
    Skill set for managing food service
    Research market rate for FS managers
    Are you willing to take on another staffing problem.
11. THE REWARD
    Food service can be very profitable. Do your homework, select the correct concept and know how to manage food service

FOOD SERVICE- NUTS & BOLTS

Outline of the “Food Service- Nuts & Bolts” speech I recently gave at the Minnesota conference.

By Dean Dirks

1. PERFECT STORM
   Highest food price increases in 27 yrs
   Corn price is $5.56 vs. $3.34 last year
   Wheat price is $10.38 vs. $5.80 last year
   Fed. Min.-$5.15 hr to $7.25 (next 2 yrs)
   Current US average minimum wage is $6.27
   Washington-7.93 minimum wage
   Weak economy
   Elastic retail prices- McDonalds, Wendy’s Burger King- dollar menu to grow sales
2. KEEP SCORE
   Critical Elements of the P&L
   Sales
   Food cost ( Direct and Indirect)
   Labor (  Taxes & Benefits)
   Operating Expenses ( Electricity, repairs, credit card)
   Occupancy Costs ( Allocated rent, taxes)
   Depreciation
   Bottom Line – Net Profit or Contribution
3. SALES- HOW YOU MEASURE UP
   Inside customer counts- no pay at the pump
   Best in class capture rate (customers who will purchase food) = 25%
   Best in class average transaction (it will be different for various concepts
   Multiply 25% of inside customer counts by the average transaction.
   Example, 600 inside counts x .25% capture rate x $6.50 (average transaction) =  $975 a day
4. SALES GROWTH- PRICE CHANGES
   Competitor price checks- monthly
   Price increases- focus on high volume items
   Raising all prices will draw attention with not as much impact on the bottom line
   Bean burritos- 200 a day x .20 = $40 a day
   Price increase=  $14,080 in annual sales
   Raise to .99 price point-psychological
   Raise combo meal prices 10 cents.
5. SALES GROWTH STRATEGIES
   Charge premium prices for freeway locations
   Rural locations, captive market- premium pricing.
   Eliminate 12 oz coffee, offer 16, 20, 24 raise each 10 cents.
   Eliminate 16 oz cold drink, 24, 32, 44 raise each 10 cents
   12 oz 12%-  16 oz 24%- 20oz  40% oz 24%
   Modify your menu to add supersizes
   Up sell combo meals, large drinks, dble meat.
6. BUILD RECIPES
   Every item on your menu needs a recipe
   Direct materials: bun, hamburger, cheese lettuce, pickles
   Indirect materials: burger wrap, condiment packs, napkins, bag
   Set pricing based on direct and indirect costs. Need 60%-65% margins.
   Analyze price points to maximize profit, if 60% is .95, round up to .99.
7. IDEAL COST OF SALES MODEL
   Number of items sold / week multiplied by  price
   Recipes are built, linked to raw goods
   Increase in raw costs change the recipe cost
   Items sold per wk multiplied by the recipe cost
    The total item costs then divided by total retail income.
   The model tells you ideal food costs based on sales mix.
   Food costs -reviewed on variance to the ideal cost of sales.
8. FOOD COST CONTROL
   Employees portioning correctly
   Pre portioned items weighed correctly
   Empty squeeze bottles, mayonnaise, mustard
   Ketchup, mustard pks,  in carry out bags
   Ring  extras, upsize and combo meals correctly
   Employees giving away food  to friends
   Make sure prices are correct on invoices.
   No specials in captive markets ( a freeway location)
   Specials, use low food cost items.
9. FOOD COST CONTROL
   Paper costs can represent 10-15% of costs
   Napkins in bags
   Alter recipe’s ham for bacon
   Entice customers to purchase low fc items
   Smaller price points- less food per item
   Only sell high volume hot beverage flavors
   75% of coffee sales 5-8, reduce flavors after 8
   Brix soda machines once a month.
   Cappuccino  and coffee machine dumps checked monthly.
10. FOOD COST CONTROL
    Record all waste
    Inventory at COST once a week.
    Inventory paper products associated with food items
    Food cost info to supervisors the day after inventory
    Call managers and request an action plan
    Food cost management is a minute by minute, day by day process. 
11. LABOR CONTROLS
    Make labor control part of your culture.
    Time series vs. customer count
    Think dollars, not hours
    Daily and weekly labor a function of sales
    Sales per labor hour
    Make managers accountable for effective  reviews and raises
    YTD labor is one of criteria for bonus
12. LABOR CONTROLS
    Part time labor. Recruit, recruit, recruit. Needed to reduce labor
    Shift leaders, who will send people home when it is slow
    Hours of operations in food service
    Training is critical, but don’t allocate training dollars
    If the manager is allowed training hours they will use them , they should be training
    Move equipment to reduce labor.
13. LABOR TOOLS
    Schedule labor based on 15- minute customer counts, not employee needs
    Actual vs. budgeted labor report
    Labor distribution report, overtime, average wage, shift differential, and overtime rates
    Action plan e-mailed the same day.
14. SUMMARY
    There are no silver bullets in  food service.
    You should not be in the food service business unless you are expensing all costs to a separate Profit and Loss statement
    Success requires hourly and daily attention to food and labor controls.
    You need to react to poor sales, excessive labor or high food costs the next day, not on the 10th of the next month when the P&L is produced

Entering or Expanding Food Service

Outline of the “Enter or Expanding Food Service” speech I gave at the Pinnacle Summit 2008 in Grapevine, Texas.

By Dean Dirks

1. THE RISK
   Soft U.S. economy.
   Diminishing customer counts.
   High food costs.
   Escalating labor costs.
   High energy costs
   Closure rates: Quizno’s 7.5%– Blimpie 16.1%– Krispie Kreme 10.7%.
2. THE REWARD
   Profits can be $5k-$10k a month .
   It the concept is a good fit, it will create a destination location.
   One stop shop is attractive to consumers.
   Food service builds frequency.
   Inside sales will lift because of ancillary purchases.
3. GUT CHECKS
   The companies’ ability to operate food service.
   Willingness to pay market rates for food service managers.
   Staffing stores- a big problem, do you want to add to the problem?
   The owner’s patience to loose money in the beginning.
4. GUT CHECKS
   Where do your core competencies lie?
   Unbranded (creativity)
   Saves commissions
   No support network.
   Longer to develop
   Branded (systems in place).
   Lack of control with inspections, audits, etc.
5. SITE REVIEW
   Locations often fail due to poor site reviews.
   Traditional restaurants spend $10,000 to $20,000 on site reviews.
   Visibility, data shows that the “if you build it they will come” theory is not always true.
   Poor signage destroys food service
6. SITE REVIEW
   Adequate parking, making money at food service can’t be a trade off for hurting inside sales
   Parking at the pumps due to poor parking
   Walk-up business, office and factory workers can offset parking
   Drive thrus are critical for some concepts.
7. SITE REVIEW
   Logistic issues, flow of customers
   Demographic match
   Day part customer counts in the store, deli stronger from 11-2,  pizza stronger 5-8, chicken 5-8.
8. THREATS
   If the concept is a branded, realize that QSR companies can build as close to as they choose.
   Bridging strategy.
   Future developments that may change traffic flows, new malls, and possible future QSR plans.
   Available real-estate for traditional QSR restaurants to build.
9. SALES FORECASTING
   Customer counts, capture rate data and average check used to forecast sales.
   If branded companies use sales numbers complete your own due diligence.
   High sales “hide  sins”, low sales make it hard to manage COGS and labor.
10. CALCULATING COST OF GOODS
    Don’t use % information given to you.
    Develop recipe for each item, include everything, condiments, napkins, straws.
    Cost each recipe.
    Set the retail price of each item.
    Calculate estimated sales mix.
    Calculate ideal cost of goods, + 3%.
11. LABOR FORECAST
    Don’t use % when forecasting labor.
    Write a schedule to staff the location.
    Labor rates differ state to state-a percent won’t work.
    Use loaded labor (payroll taxes).
    Calculate total fixed labor.
12. LABOR FORECAST EXAMPLE
    Two people needed to staff a deli.
    They can produce 4k a wk in sales or 6k a wk in sales.
    The fixed scheduled dollars are $1,200.
    4k a week in sales = 30% labor costs.
    6k a week in sales= 20% labor costs.
13. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
    Develop a profit and loss forecast based on previous information.
    Enter all expenses, labor at all levels (senior management), utilities, water, credit card fees, etc.
    Consider the opportunity cost of the space. Analyze the cost of a beer cave and a lift in beer sales for example.
14. THE END OF THE DAY
    Calculate internal rate of return.
    Determine whether the internal rate of return meets the owners hurdle rate.
    If the internal rate of return doesn’t meet the owner’s threshold for risk it may  be better to pass.

THE PERFECT STORM – HOW TO NAVIGATE IT

Outline of “The Perfect Storm – How To Navigate It” speech I gave at the Pinnacle Summit 2008 in Grapevine, Texas.

By Dean Dirks

1. THE PERFECT STORM
   Soft U.S. economy.
   Elastic retail prices.
   High food costs.
   Escalating labor costs.
   Decreasing labor pool.
   High turnover.
   Increasing credit card costs.
   Increased energy costs.
2. QSR/Fast Casual Stock Values vs. 2007
   Jack in the Box (-18%)
   Wendy’s (-23%)
   Denny’s  (-29)
   Domino’s Pizza  (-58%)
   Panera Bread  (-12%)
   Ruby Tuesday (-68%)
3. DETIORATING SALES
   McDonald’s same store sales down- first time in 56 months.
   Starbucks- closing 100 stores in 2008 .
   Taco Bell, Pizza Hut & KFC- 5% below projected  earnings.
   Domino’s same store sales down 1.6%
   Average QSR same store sales were  flat for Q1 vs. last year’s 3.7% growth.
   Quiznos and Krispie Kreme experiencing closure rates of 8-10%
4. PRICE ELASTICITY
   QSR prices are elastic, chains are discounting to grow sales.
   While food and labor have increased, the average QSR has only raised prices 4-7%.
   McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s discounted menu.
   Subway $5.00 sub promotion.
5. QSR PLAN TO SURVIVE
   Enhance customer service.
   Upgrade accuracy.
   Increase speed of service.
   Attack new markets, coffee, breakfast & espresso.
   Technology to reduce labor & improve quality.
6. POINT OF SALE
   80% of QSR customers are frustrated by the speed of service.
   Kiosks will increase speed of service with accuracy.
   70% of QSR customers stated that rude employees are the #1 reason for not returning.
   Kiosks will eliminate this issue
7. POINT OF SALE
   80% of QSR customers stated that inaccurate orders will cause them not to return.
   Kiosks will increase order accuracy.
   70% of QSR customers will not come back due to drive through accuracy.
   Drive thru touch screens will increase order accuracy.
8. KIOSK SALES GROWTH
   1 out of 3 associates will try to suggestive sell.
   “Would you like to add a combo meal for just 99 cents more? ”30% more success than“Would you like a combo meal?”
   Kiosks scripted for suggestive selling to advance. 
9. TECHNOLOGY POINT OF SALE
   E-Menu boards can be updated in real time, enabling managers to highlight specials or make changes
   E-Menus that a will allow guests to place their orders, play a variety of video games and pay their tabs at the table.
10. RISING FOOD COSTS
    Food prices rose 7.6 percent in 2007, the biggest price increase in 27 years.
    Corn price is $5.56 vs. $3.34 last year
    Wheat price is $10.38 vs. $5.80 last year
    Flour increased (93%), cheese (25%) and eggs (35%) in 2007.
    Food cost increases are a long term problem.
    Australian drought and Ethanol
11. IDEAL COST OF SALES
    Recipe built, linked to raw goods.
    Raw product costs entered and   change the recipe costs.
    Items sold per wk multiplied by the recipe cost (100 burritos X .40)
    Total item costs divided/income.
    Ideal food cost based- sales mix.
    Variance to the ideal cost of sales.
12. REDUCE FOOD COSTS
    Weekly inventories-daily protein.
    Smaller portions- lowered pricing.
    Menu changes-replace bacon w/ham to reduce a recipe cost
    Promos on low food cost items.
    Low cost coffee, fountain sales.
    Category manage raw products.
13. RISING LABOR COSTS
    Federal minimum wage will increase from $5.15 to $7.25 an hour over the next two years.
    Current US average minimum wage is $6.27
    Washington-7.93 minimum wage
    Oregon- 7.80 minimum wage
14. TECHNOLOGY LABOR MANAGEMENT
    Schedules- customer counts/ 15 minutes- sales/labor hour
    Labor tracked in real time, managers can at any time check labor costs via internet
    E-mail alerts -employees are close to overtime or real labor is exceeding scheduled labor.
15. TECHNOLOGY ELIMINATE STAFFING
    3,200 of McDonald’s units have automated beverage systems linked to the cash register. Drops the cup, fills it with ice, soda and conveys it to the drive-through.
    Wendy’s in 2007 rolled out grills with flippers that cook a burger on both sides simultaneously.
    McDonald’s is testing an automated french fry machine.
16. TECHNOLOGY ELIMINATE STAFFING
    Automated grill- will transport food from an attached freezer to the grill.
    U.of Wisconsin developed a robot that slaps the bun on a finished burger and will assemble three burgers per minute.
    Self-cleaning fryers & broilers.
17. ENERGY COSTS
    Restaurants spend on average 3 to 5 percent of their total operating costs on energy costs.
    QSR’s are building much smaller foot prints and engineering kitchens for efficiency.
18. SUMMARY
    The QSR industry is under a great deal of pressure.
    QSR’s have targeted the c-store market in terms of coffee, drinks and breakfast.
    Our industry must strive for the same standards and efficiencies as QSRs to succeed.